Thoughts
Jamaica is a wild cat prospect, definitely high risk but that’s what will take UOG to the next level. I have some notes on the risks and thoughts on what might happen.
20% Chance of Success
I personally think there is higher than 20% chance of success in Jamaica but UOG has a 20% estimate
Final processing of the 2,250km2 3D seismic data that was acquired in 2018 was completed in 2019. A CPR completed on this new data increased the gross unrisked mean-case recoverable Prospective Resources to 229 MMstb, and improved the chance of success to 20%
source: https://www.uogplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/UOG-Plc-Group-Financial-Statements-2019.pdf
Input from others
Oil analysts say that 100 per cent of Jamaica’s estimated oil and gas reserves are easily recoverable.
source: https://www.oilandgasvisionjobs.com/news-item/norris-mcdonald-tullow-and-jamaica-why-the-silence-over-the-big-oil-and-gas-find
Tullow also outlined that there has been oil or gas shows in 10 of the 11 onshore and offshore wells drilled in Jamaica to date.
source: http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/business/20200527/united-wants-continue-oil-project-jamaica
Risks
No farm-in partners
“The PCJ can advise that we have been informed by Tullow and United Oil and Gas, that the farm-down process (equity reduction) has been unsuccessful so far; however, the companies have indicated that they are still looking for partners,” the agency told the Financial Gleaner.
Tullow giving up
“Markets will be aware that the licence operator, Tullow Oil plc, has written down the value of the Walton-Morant licence in their most recent preliminary results schedule,” stated United in its latest filings.
source: http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/business/20200527/united-wants-continue-oil-project-jamaica
Negotiations with Jamaican government
However, due to the uncertainty in respect of the current exploration phase there is an indication of possible future impairment should the extension of the exploration period not be granted.
source: https://www.uogplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/UOG-Plc-Group-Financial-Statements-2019.pdf
Options to Proceed
In order to proceed with Jamaica, UOG needs to be diligent on how they should negotiate with the Jamaican government and how they can finance this. I have some speculations on what UOG will do.
Option 1: UOG negotiates with Jamaican government to take over 100% of Walton-Morant licence
This means UOG will take over all of Walton-Morant licence, start drilling while seeking for farm-in partners. In the mean time, UOG can opt to pay the Jamaican government over X years and/or pay when UOG finds a farm-in partner.
Option 2: UOG negotiates with Jamaican government for an extension to drill until a farm in partner is found
Straight forward enough, but this means everything will continue to be delayed.
Option 3: UOG obtains a loan or raise to pursue Walton-Morant licence
This is very similar to option 1 except this means UOG will have to pay a hefty interest for loans or share dilution for raise.
Option 4: Give up Walton-Morant licence
This is the worst case scenario which Jamaican government will not negotiate any further and UOG doesn’t have the money to drill. This means UOG have to write off any investments it spent on Jamaica.