Back to Blogging 11/6/2021

I have been quiet for some time due to personal reasons, but I haven’t stopped buying in the market. Moving around during the pandemic sure is fun, but the pain of moving is excruciating. Currently I’m living beautiful British Columbia.

New Home in Vancouver

Investment Update

But just a quick update on where I am – in the past 2 months, I have increased my position in Frontera Energy by 25% and increased my position in Petrotal by 1.8%. Currently, Frontera and Petrotal offers significant upside, due Frontera’s Guyana exploration program, and Petrotal’s social unrest, and production increase.

PTAL Catalysts

  • 9H
  • ONP reopening

FEC Catalyst

  • Dividend reinstatement
  • Puerto Bahia
  • Kawa-1 results
  • Colombia exploration and production increase
  • NCIB

While I’m preparing to get back to more blogging, I’m anxiously waiting for Frontera’s Kawa-1 well results, and Petrotal’s 9H Completion. Exciting times ahead!

My RSUs just unvested, so I have plenty of liquidity to purchase more. We are just in the beginning of O&G Bull Market.

PTAL – road to recovery

From Flying to Crashing to Take off again

PTAL had an excellent 2019 and was on the verge of taking off in 2020; unfortunately, Covid 19 had a major impact on the oil market and Peru – oil prices crashed, followed by ONP shutdown, followed by social and political unrest. What a crazy year!

Strapped on cash, halted cashflow and flooded with liability, PTAL sadly had to raise at a less than ideal price. I wasn’t too happy about that.

But it appears things have turned in Q4 2020, with ONP re-opening, Brazil export route successful with decent netback, and RBL and Vendor liability discussions in progress.

PTAL plans to resume production to 10000 BOPD in mid January 2021, meaning A LOT of cashflow.

With most concerns out of the way, we might wonder, what’s going to happen with contingent liability, and vendor liability. Lowie reached out to PTAL Management and have the following summarized.

Summary from PTAL:

  • Vendors supportive
  • Understand issue is community / govt • managing funds carefully
  • at full production all obligations can be met quickly
  • as 2nd largest producer and plenty of drilling planned vendors know there’s lots more to come.
  • global market stability is helping with RBL etc discussions and hopeful will conclude soon

From what we gathered, contingent and vendor liability will be resolved, which is excellent news.

I look forward to a fruitful 2021 for PTAL.

Cautiously optimistic on Frontera, United Oil and Petrotal

Quick Recap

Frontera – Increased Production, Colombia drilling, Guyana, Midstream domination

United – Egypt success, Jamaica farmout

Petrotal – high netback, production increase, exploration

Why cautious? All these things will keep oil prices down and limit upside.

  • CV19 might still be a thing
  • US Oil Rig slowly increasing
  • OPEC+ disputes

Well, it doesn’t matter for UOG since it’s been pretty much stagnant even though Brent prices rose more than $10. I’m really looking for its Jamaican assets to shine.

Pausing on aggressive oil investments for now

Approximately 60% of my capital is invested in O&G sector, and 30% in Silver. With that said, I feel that I’ve allocated enough in the O&G for now; I’m not going to chase, but will continue to buy the dips. Oil equities rally significantly in Nov and Dec, so I’ll be watching on how this sector recovers in 2021.

Currently, I’m holding #TXP, #UOG #PTAL and #FEC in the O&G sector. I think #PTAL and #UOG will catch up in 2021, while #TXP and #FEC will continue to rise. It will be a bumpy recovery in my opinion.

Meanwhile, I’ll be working my 9-5 job and saving cash. I want to look at private investments in start ups in the years ahead for personal interest and diversification.

Working 9-5 isn’t my thing as it’s boring as f**k. I would say 50% of the time I’m dealing with politics and corporate agendas which I have no interest in. I would love to share my thoughts with my peers and coach my staff, but to survive in the corporate world, you have to play the game and never share your personal agenda or opinion.

Dividend Investing: Taking risks vs taking hidden risks

I used to be a risk adverse, conservative investor. To be honest, I wouldn’t even call myself an investor. I only put money in random dividend stocks. The only thing I looked at was yield and familiarity with the company.

Oh, the Keg is a great restaurant chain in Canada, and their yield is 6%, let’s invest in that. Jack Astors gives 9% in dividends, totally worth investing in.

No doubt, it felt good to receive some money every month. It felt like a solid investment putting money into dividend stocks. I got money back every month or quarter, so I felt safe.

I was lucky I bought those companies during the 2008 recession, so not only did I get dividends, these companies actually appreciated. Some even got acquired.

In hindsight, it was a wrong decision to invest in these companies. I neglected

  • where these companies were getting money to pay its dividends
  • debt, revenue, and profitability
  • growth

I was just lucky. End of story.

My friend, FI Fighter and I had a chat years ago at a local cafe in Cupertino, and he mentioned that dividend stocks were comfort stocks. Essentially, you pay yourself with your own money, and the dividends comfort you. Your net gain is zero. The risks are no less than mining stocks and yet the upside is far less than mining stock.

Initially I didn’t pay too much attention to his thoughts, but the more I thought about it, the more I agreed. In a couple months, I started liquidating all my dividend stocks and entered the mining space. I was glad I did or I would have learned about dividend cuts and its impact on share prices the hard way.

Long story short, dividend cuts started happening a year or so later, and share prices went crashing. These, my readers, are the hidden risks in dividend investing. When you hear people say ‘nom nom nom, thanks for the yummy dividends’ on company forums, stay the F away from those companies.

The focus shouldn’t be on the dividends itself; dividends should be the outcome of a well operated company.

I hope I’m better than that now.

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