O&G – Page 2 – FiGambler

Cautiously optimistic on Frontera, United Oil and Petrotal

Posted on December 20, 2020 7:42 amby figambler

Quick Recap

Frontera – Increased Production, Colombia drilling, Guyana, Midstream domination

United – Egypt success, Jamaica farmout

Petrotal – high netback, production increase, exploration

Why cautious? All these things will keep oil prices down and limit upside.

CV19 might still be a thing
US Oil Rig slowly increasing
OPEC+ disputes

Well, it doesn’t matter for UOG since it’s been pretty much stagnant even though Brent prices rose more than $10. I’m really looking for its Jamaican assets to shine.

Pausing on aggressive oil investments for now

Posted on December 13, 2020 6:26 pmby figambler

Approximately 60% of my capital is invested in O&G sector, and 30% in Silver. With that said, I feel that I’ve allocated enough in the O&G for now; I’m not going to chase, but will continue to buy the dips. Oil equities rally significantly in Nov and Dec, so I’ll be watching on how this sector recovers in 2021.

Currently, I’m holding #TXP, #UOG #PTAL and #FEC in the O&G sector. I think #PTAL and #UOG will catch up in 2021, while #TXP and #FEC will continue to rise. It will be a bumpy recovery in my opinion.

Meanwhile, I’ll be working my 9-5 job and saving cash. I want to look at private investments in start ups in the years ahead for personal interest and diversification.

Working 9-5 isn’t my thing as it’s boring as f**k. I would say 50% of the time I’m dealing with politics and corporate agendas which I have no interest in. I would love to share my thoughts with my peers and coach my staff, but to survive in the corporate world, you have to play the game and never share your personal agenda or opinion.

United Oil and Gas, catalyst ahead and Jamaica for £100

Posted on December 6, 2020 8:40 pmby figambler

A lot of decent news coming from United Oil (UOG) in 2021. Egypt is expected to grow, no surprises there. Italy is a nice addition, but won’t change the company by too much.

Jamaica is where we want to pay attention to. Jamaica news will transform the company — for the good or bad. I’m expecting UOG to become a mid-cap in the years ahead.

Egypt (Nice)

More drilling, more wells
pipeline

Italy (Meh)

First Gas production

Jamaica (The big one!) <- Pay Attention to this one

Farm out
CPR
Many different prospects and targets!

Thoughts on OPEC+ meeting this week

Posted on November 30, 2020 7:47 amModified on November 30, 2020 7:48 amby figambler

The oil market is in a tough spot right now. The recent price increase already has OPEC+ extending cuts priced in. If OPEC+ decides against extending cuts, oil prices will drop vertically. It will take months before excess oil inventory is removed and thereby delaying oil market rebalance.

Currently OPEC+ cannot agree on extending cuts beyond January, and this is spooking the market. I anticipate volatility in O&G equities until a consensus is made.

Thoughts

Reading from credible twitters and sources, with some analysis, I’ve listed several outcomes in the order of most likely to least likely.

OPEC+ agrees to a partial extension of cuts
OPEC+ does not extend cuts
OPEC+ agrees to a full extension of cuts

If OPEC+ does not extend cuts, oil prices will drop likely back to $30s. Not good

If OPEC+ agrees to full cut, oil prices will increase such that production can be brought online. Not good either.

If OPEC+ agrees to a partial cut, oil prices may stay in a steady sweet spot such that excess inventory continues to decrease, and high cost producers cannot bring production back online.

I think I will buy the volatility because low cost producers will be just fine.

A lot of bullishness in the oil market, but let’s not start chasing too soon.

Posted on November 24, 2020 1:35 amby figambler

Oil Supply and demand should balance out in Q2 2021 though we could see a balance as soon as Q1 2021.

In the past 2 weeks, we’ve seen a rise in O&G equities, and to me, this is exciting — but seems like all too soon for my liking. I’d like to build up a bigger position first.

Frontera Energy ($FEC.TO) is one of my favorite companies since it should NOT be valued at ~280M CAD. See why here. Frontera share price rosed from a low of $2.02 on Nov 6, 2020 to $2.90 on Nov 23, 2020 – 0.88 CAD increase or 44% up in 2 weeks!

Have the Oil Bull market begun? No, I suspect the rise in O&G equities recently is led by short term investors and traders. There will be slight pull backs for us long term investors to buy in.

Be patient, buy on pull backs, and don’t chase all the way. I admit, I chase a little due to FOMO. Typically, I chase with small buys, and buy big on pull backs in this market.

Best of luck in the Energy Sector!