Peru preparing to resume Northern Pipeline in 2 weeks

Yes, they are getting ready after meeting sanitary protocols.

On the other hand, regarding the cessation of operations of the Nor Peruano Pipeline, Guevara announced that they are also “in the process of restarting, to see the personnel that would enter, to verify the state of health”, which may take “about two weeks” . Regarding the possible risks of contagion for the populations surrounding the pipeline, located in the Amazon, the executive said that “people (stationed at the site) go to the stations and do not move,” but that “the personnel have to pass the quarantine (preventive) before going ”to the area.”

https://t.co/JBNZcsHQbB?amp=1

UOG breakdown and thoughts

Jamaica and Egypt – that’s all I care about, rest are just icing.

UOG is will be cashed up for any oil price instability and crisis

  • Cashflow from Egypt: net ~$6.9M for 2020
  • Crown divestment – net ~$2.85M for 2020

Egypt

I’m assuming UOG can recover all 30% of recovery oil because they have a large tax pool. All calculations are in USD.

  • Production: 1850 bopd
  • OPEX: $6.50
  • Brent Discount: 5%
  • Brent Price: $32
  • Annual profit: $6957028.16
  • Daily Revenue: $56240.0
  • Annual Revenue: $20527600.0

I used a python script to do my calculation and here is my formula, do let me know if my formula is flawed:

daily_profit = (bopd * ((brent_price – current_opex) * (1 – brent_discount))) * 0.3 + 0.7 * 0.179* (bopd * (brent_price – current_opex) * ( 1 – brent_discount) )

Egypt PSC Terms

Caveats

  • bonus payments required on different tiers of production level

From AIM Admission document

Cost Recovery and Production Sharing
“The Contractors will recover quarterly all costs in respect of exploration, development and operation
out of 30 per cent. of all petroleum produced within the concession area. To the extent that the value
of such cost recovery petroleum exceeds the actual recoverable costs, the value of the excess cost
recovery petroleum will be divided between EGPC and the Contractors in accordance with the
percentages of production sharing as set out below.
The remaining 70 per cent. of the petroleum will be divided between EGPC and the Contractors as
follows:
EGPC’s share Contractors’ share
Crude Oil 82.1% 17.9%
Gas and LPG 82.1% 17.9%
With respect to the Contractors’ share of the crude oil produced, priority will be given to meet the
requirement of the Egyptian market for which EGPC has a preferential right to purchase. With respect
to the gas and liquefied petroleum gas produced, priority will be given to meet the requirement of
the local market as determined by EGPC. Where EGPC or EGAS is the buyer of the gas sold to the
local markets, the sale will be by virtue of a long term gas sales agreement to be entered into between
EGPC and the Contractors (as sellers) and EGPC or EGAS (as buyer).
Bonus Payment
The Abu Sennan Concession provides for certain bonus payments payable to EGPC by the
Contractors such as upon approval of each Development Lease and by the relevant Contractor in
the event of assignment of its rights and obligations under the Abu Sennan Concession (see below).
In addition, the Contractors are obliged to make certain production bonus payments to EGPC upon
production reaching certain agreed thresholds.

source: https://www.uogplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/The-Company%E2%80%99s-Re-Admission-Document.pdf

Crown Divestment

“Under the terms of the Crown SPA, and subject to FDP approval, United expects a further $2.85m of net payments during 2020 from the sale of this asset.”

source: https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/united_oil_and_gas/news/rns/story/xqjey7w

Jamaica

“United has indicated to the Jamaican authorities that it wishes to explore options for continuing to progress what United believe to be a transformative licence.  Discussions have been initiated with the Government, and we will update the market in due course.”

source: https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/united_oil_and_gas/news/rns/story/xqjey7w

contact: [email protected]

Peru thoughts: Mining and O&G Preparing back to work

It appears that some protocols are being ‘massaged’ so that people can return to work. I anticipate mining and O&G activities to resume very shortly. Peru’s Northern Pipeline had to close and part of the reason is because:

“The directive establishes that no employee over the age of 60 or with serious chronic diseases must work in the high-risk regions of Peru.

https://gestion.pe/economia/coronavirus-peru-minem-modifica-protocolo-para-que-trabajadores-puedan-laborar-en-reactivacion-de-mineria-energia-e-hidrocarburos-nndc-noticia/

But the Ministry of Energy and Mines (Minem) is already modifying its protocol to allow more employees to return to work.

“According to Ministerial Resolution No. 135-2020-MINEM-DM , it is established that from now on, workers over 65 years of age and those with a BMI of 40 and over will be considered as part of the risk group. With this, the age limit will no longer be from 60, nor the BMI from 30 to more.”

https://gestion.pe/economia/coronavirus-peru-minem-modifica-protocolo-para-que-trabajadores-puedan-laborar-en-reactivacion-de-mineria-energia-e-hidrocarburos-nndc-noticia/

Aside from that, I believe the government will continue to support its O&G industry. Peru is a net importer of oil and gas and will need to attract investments in Peru by taking actions favorable to investors.

Government Support

This is a post from Minem from 2019 expressing government support for O&G activities.

“Eduardo Guevara highlighted that the operation carried out by both companies reflects the confidence of investors in the economic and legal stability of our country.”

“The Peruvian State looks favorably on private investments that support the development of the gas industry in the national territory and supports this type of initiative through the improvements proposed in the new Organic Law on Hydrocarbons (LOH), which is currently in the Congress Energy and Mines Commission; the publication of the Citizen Participation Regulation for the carrying out of Hydrocarbon Activities, in January of this year; and the programming of the necessary resources for the remediation of hydrocarbon environmental liabilities, initiatives that seek to give greater sustainability to long-term investments, he said.

http://www.minem.gob.pe/_detallenoticia.php?idSector=5&idTitular=9496

Oil news, thoughts, and Peru Coronvirus situation.

Highlights

  • Peru’s CV19 cases needs to stay undercontrol
  • Iquitos is slightly concerning
  • Mining and Hydrocarbon industry is preparing back to work (in my opinion) by lowering the health condition requirements for workers
  • RANDOM: Are the shale zombies reviving?

Peru’s CV19 cases curve look “meh”

I think it’ll take a month at least for Peru to stabilize from CV19.

Energy Transfer claims shale producers are turning back on production.

“Oil producers have generally been vague about when they’ll ramp output back up, though some have hinted that oil prices in the high-$20s or low-$30s could be sufficient. “

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-11/shuttered-oil-wells-are-turning-back-on-pipeline-giant-says

Iquitos not looking good at the moment: “Iquitos regional hospital: 11 doctors for 600 patients

https://diariocorreo.pe/peru/hospital-regional-de-iquitos-11-medicos-para-600-pacientes-noticia/?ref=dcr

“Protocol modified so that workers can work in the reactivation of mining, energy and hydrocarbons”

“According to Ministerial Resolution No. 135-2020-MINEM-DM , it is established that from now on, workers over 65 years of age and those with a BMI of 40 and over will be considered as part of the risk group. With this, the age limit will no longer be from 60, nor the BMI from 30 to more”

https://gestion.pe/economia/coronavirus-peru-minem-modifica-protocolo-para-que-trabajadores-puedan-laborar-en-reactivacion-de-mineria-energia-e-hidrocarburos-nndc-noticia/

Oilman Jim remains anonymous :o

When questioned about his anonymity, he blocks me :o. I’m deeply saddened by his actions, and it’s truly a shame that I don’t get his insightful (hindsighful) updates.

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