UOG: Jamaica, the wild cat upside ( downside)

Thoughts

Jamaica is a wild cat prospect, definitely high risk but that’s what will take UOG to the next level. I have some notes on the risks and thoughts on what might happen.

20% Chance of Success

I personally think there is higher than 20% chance of success in Jamaica but UOG has a 20% estimate

Final processing of the 2,250km2 3D seismic data that was acquired in 2018 was completed in 2019. A CPR completed on this new data increased the gross unrisked mean-case recoverable Prospective Resources to 229 MMstb, and improved the chance of success to 20%

source: https://www.uogplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/UOG-Plc-Group-Financial-Statements-2019.pdf

Input from others

Oil analysts say that 100 per cent of Jamaica’s estimated oil and gas reserves are easily recoverable.

source: https://www.oilandgasvisionjobs.com/news-item/norris-mcdonald-tullow-and-jamaica-why-the-silence-over-the-big-oil-and-gas-find

Tullow also outlined that there has been oil or gas shows in 10 of the 11 onshore and offshore wells drilled in Jamaica to date.

source: http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/business/20200527/united-wants-continue-oil-project-jamaica

Risks

No farm-in partners

“The PCJ can advise that we have been informed by Tullow and United Oil and Gas, that the farm-down process (equity reduction) has been unsuccessful so far; however, the companies have indicated that they are still looking for partners,” the agency told the Financial Gleaner.

Tullow giving up

“Markets will be aware that the licence operator, Tullow Oil plc, has written down the value of the Walton-Morant licence in their most recent preliminary results schedule,” stated United in its latest filings.

source: http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/business/20200527/united-wants-continue-oil-project-jamaica

Negotiations with Jamaican government

However, due to the uncertainty in respect of the current exploration phase there is an indication of possible future impairment should the extension of the exploration period not be granted.

source: https://www.uogplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/UOG-Plc-Group-Financial-Statements-2019.pdf

Options to Proceed

In order to proceed with Jamaica, UOG needs to be diligent on how they should negotiate with the Jamaican government and how they can finance this. I have some speculations on what UOG will do.

Option 1: UOG negotiates with Jamaican government to take over 100% of Walton-Morant licence

This means UOG will take over all of Walton-Morant licence, start drilling while seeking for farm-in partners. In the mean time, UOG can opt to pay the Jamaican government over X years and/or pay when UOG finds a farm-in partner.

Option 2: UOG negotiates with Jamaican government for an extension to drill until a farm in partner is found

Straight forward enough, but this means everything will continue to be delayed.

Option 3: UOG obtains a loan or raise to pursue Walton-Morant licence

This is very similar to option 1 except this means UOG will have to pay a hefty interest for loans or share dilution for raise.

Option 4: Give up Walton-Morant licence

This is the worst case scenario which Jamaican government will not negotiate any further and UOG doesn’t have the money to drill. This means UOG have to write off any investments it spent on Jamaica.

Dividend Investing: Taking risks vs taking hidden risks

I used to be a risk adverse, conservative investor. To be honest, I wouldn’t even call myself an investor. I only put money in random dividend stocks. The only thing I looked at was yield and familiarity with the company.

Oh, the Keg is a great restaurant chain in Canada, and their yield is 6%, let’s invest in that. Jack Astors gives 9% in dividends, totally worth investing in.

No doubt, it felt good to receive some money every month. It felt like a solid investment putting money into dividend stocks. I got money back every month or quarter, so I felt safe.

I was lucky I bought those companies during the 2008 recession, so not only did I get dividends, these companies actually appreciated. Some even got acquired.

In hindsight, it was a wrong decision to invest in these companies. I neglected

  • where these companies were getting money to pay its dividends
  • debt, revenue, and profitability
  • growth

I was just lucky. End of story.

My friend, FI Fighter and I had a chat years ago at a local cafe in Cupertino, and he mentioned that dividend stocks were comfort stocks. Essentially, you pay yourself with your own money, and the dividends comfort you. Your net gain is zero. The risks are no less than mining stocks and yet the upside is far less than mining stock.

Initially I didn’t pay too much attention to his thoughts, but the more I thought about it, the more I agreed. In a couple months, I started liquidating all my dividend stocks and entered the mining space. I was glad I did or I would have learned about dividend cuts and its impact on share prices the hard way.

Long story short, dividend cuts started happening a year or so later, and share prices went crashing. These, my readers, are the hidden risks in dividend investing. When you hear people say ‘nom nom nom, thanks for the yummy dividends’ on company forums, stay the F away from those companies.

The focus shouldn’t be on the dividends itself; dividends should be the outcome of a well operated company.

I hope I’m better than that now.

Loreto province on its road to recovery. Peru’s Pipeline to resume.

Despite Latin America becoming a hot spot for CV19, at least the Loreto province of Peru is on its road to recover.

Also from the region confirmed this information. “We have a tendency for the curve to flatten, and we can be able to face the pandemic in better conditions at the provincial and district levels. In Maynas the situation has been controlled, we are waiting for a second wave of infections,” said Carlos Calampa , regional director. Loreto’s health

Doesn’t mean Peru is back 100%, but I believe it means the worst is over. It will still take many months to fully recover

source: https://rpp.pe/peru/actualidad/coronavirus-en-peru-disminuye-elanumero-de-fallecidos-en-provincias-de-loreto-y-ucayali-covid-19-noticia-1267814

Pipeline Resumption

Hence, I’m calling Peru’s Northern pipeline to resume in first week of June. With Brent prices increasing, oil demand slowly recovering, and Loreto province situation improving, it is now in Peru’s interest to resume oil production. To be ahead of the game, oil production needs to start now. Now! Now!

Update: Peru will have the storage to prepare for oil producers to produce again.

The impact of this measure “is to expand its storage capacity for crude oil from 868.65 MB to 1,116 MB and thus avoid suspending the acquisition of crude oil from local producers and the consequent cessation of production of oil lots that would affect the workers from said producers and the canon and surcharge received by the Tumbes and Piura regions; considering that the effects of the declaration of the State of Emergency result in less commercialization of hydrocarbons at the national level

source: https://larepublica.pe/economia/2020/05/23/petroperu-ampliara-almacenaje-de-petroleo-y-gasolina-en-refineria-de-talara-y-planta-de-conchan-petroleo-estado-de-emergencia-precios-combustibles-osinergmin-coronavirus-en-peru/

Peru attempting to address CV19 in Iquitos

Iquitos was hit pretty hard. I hope they got a good handle on this. I recall they were short on oxygen tanks, PPE, and doctors. For any activities to restarts in Iquitos, CV19 must be kept under control.

HEADS OF THE MINISTERIAL CABINET

Dispatch of aid and medical equipment for Loreto will be permanent

Commitment and work. That is what the president of the Council of Ministers, Vicente Zeballos, guaranteed in favor of Loreto during his recent visit to this region to carry 12 tons of health aid and to finalize the transfer of 34 doctors in order to join the containment work of the coronavirus.

https://elperuano.pe/noticia-envio-ayuda-y-equipos-medicos-para-loreto-sera-permanente-95995.aspx

Update: And looks like things are improving!!!!

If the health system continues to improve, a pre-hospital center (Straw Hat) would be closing, where people with no symptoms or mild symptoms were cared for.

https://canaln.pe/peru/loreto-diresa-reporta-baja-tendencia-casos-covid-19-n414543

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