FEC refinances bonds at a lower rate and it’s implications

FEC will be issuing $400 million in senior unsecured notes due 2028 at a coupon rate of 7.875% and buying back their $350 million worth of 2023 9.70% senior secured notes at 104.95% premium. This indicates a 1.825% difference in interest payments.

I believe there will be associated costs to pay any financings fees and the 4.95% premium on existing bonds; though the impact will be short lived. The long term benefit would be $2.45 million/annum in interest savings since the loan is now $400 million.

Bigger loan, smaller interest payment, why not?

The reduction in financing cost is a sound move, but the interesting part is this shows rating agencies believe Frontera is a lower risk investment than it was a year ago.

The 2028 Notes have been assigned a rating of B+ by S&P Global Ratings with a Stable Outlook and a rating of B with a Stable Outlook by Fitch Ratings.*

With an even stronger balancing sheet, Frontera is poised to take on Guyana, the elephant in the room, and Puerto Bahia, the giraffe in the room – meanwhile taking advantage of its strong production at $70 oil prices.

I do wonder what Frontera is going to do with the extra $50 million dollars; save it for a rainy say? Continue to develop Guyana upon initial drilling success; or take Puerto Bahia to profitability?

source: https://fronteraenergy.mediaroom.com/2021-06-10-Frontera-Prices-Oversubscribed-and-Upsized-US-400-Million-Senior-Unsecured-Notes-Offering-at-7-875

FEC Cont’d

FEC is getting very close on acquiring CGX Energy now that they’ve established a 19 million dollar loan deal with CGX Energy. FEC will have the option to convert the loan into shares, which represents “9.28% of the currently issued and outstanding common shares of CGX.”

If FEC decides to convert their loan into CGX shares, FEC will control more than 80% of CGX Energy.

Fun times ahead!

source: https://ceo.ca/@newswire/frontera-and-cgx-announce-19-million-loan-agreement

Frontera Energy’s Guyana Prospect

FEC’s Guyana prospect

I actually like FEC’s Guyana prospect a lot. FEC has 81.3% Economic Interest two blocks in Guyana: Corentyne and Demerara! FEC has 72.41% interest in CGX Energy and 33% stake in each block. I believe Guyana is still a hot spot for offshore drilling.

Corentyne block

Given that Carapa-1 hit oil, I believe there is a high likelihood that Corentyne will also hit oil; though it will depend on FEC’s execution.

Corentyne’s cretaceous layer may be just like Carapa-1 and contain high quality light oil.

Demerara block

Given that Joe-1 and Jethro-1 from EOG had oil discoveries in the tertiary layers; I’d expect Demerara to have similar results. I’m not particularly interested in high sulphur heavy oil as heavy oil will be more expensive to process than light oil.

source: http://www.fronteraenergy.ca/content/uploads/2020/08/August-2020-Corporate-Presentation.pdf

EOG‘s Joe and Jethro prospect.

source: https://www.ecooilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ECO_Corporate-Presentation_FOR-WEBSITE_March-2020.pdf

FEC currently valued at ~293M CAD and CGX Energy is valued at ~160M CAD today 8/12/20. This means FEC’s equity stake is worth 112M CAD and everything else FEC owns is worth 181M CAD today.

This gets me thinking – is everything else FEC owns worth only 181M CAD?

Life in Tech and Silicon Valley

I currently work in one of the top tier tech companies in Silicon Valley and it’s definitely a rewarding experience. I get to work on the greatest and latest products used by a majority of the population on this planet. I get to work with one of the greatest minds in the world ( and one of the most difficult minds as well) All in all, I get paid generously, and am proud to work at this company.

However, recently I feel something isn’t right anymore. What I realize is Big tech companies are no different from big companies in terms of culture, structure and politics. Like traditional big companies, big tech companies have this burdening hierarchy, and politics, which I find a bit discouraging.

I live in between QA, and Engineering, and I see that QA have more politics because they are less technical, so politics is their way to climb the ‘corporate ladder’.

I’m looking for a way to get out of this mess.

Frontera Energy, deal or no deal?

My notes

  • Cash > Debt by $10MM USD
  • Cashflow from Oil and Mid Stream
  • Cost of oil approximately $25/bbl USD
  • Midstream Infrastructure is a little bit messy to me
    • Book Value of Infrastructure investment = ~260MM USD
    • attack risks
    • commitments to finance infrastructure
    • note: I want to discount all infrastructure value until I get more clarity
  • 15MM USD Dividend Policy Quarterly when Brent >$60/bbl

Oil

2P Reserves 2019

158 MMBOE

Cost of Production and Transportation

~$25/bbl USD

Hedged

2020 Q1 Netback

Dividends

Debt

Infrastructure

Tax Loss

The savings made by FEC virtually all
flow straight through to cash flow because of the large tax loss position in excess
of US$3bn.

source: Hannam & Partners Equity Research 7/9/2019

Risks

Emerged from Bankruptcy

The company is just starting to reap the rewards from intense
restructuring after bankruptcy in 2016.

source: Hannam & Partners Equity Research 7/9/2019

Pacific Rubiales bankruptcy

Pipeline Liabilities

Pipeline Attacks: numerous attacks on pipelines

source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-pipelines/ecopetrol-unit-condemns-attacks-against-oil-pipelines-in-colombia-idUSKBN22H2NX

BIC appears to be a liability, but is resolved.

Proudly powered by WordPress | Foresight theme designed by thingsym