A lot of times YOU are smarter than you think. And folks on twitter are dumber than you think. Take their advice with a grain of salt.

If you spent time doing your researching, talking to the right people, backing your analysis with data, and verifying your investigations; there is no reason to panic when you hear rumors on social media such as Twitter.

PTAL is a good example. There has been noise of insolvency, and bankruptcy because they are strapped on cash. I don’t think that’s going to happen. There are plenty of last resort options management can use, such as a raise, farm out Bretana, or a loan.

First, a cap raise is not ideal because it diluted my investment :(. Farm out is an OK option but given the current lack of interest in O&G, maybe that’s not a viable option. Finally, a loan is going to be hard to hash out a deal. Where the heck are the going to get a loan from?

Meanwhile in the TwitterSphere:

looks horrific – little chance to avoiding bankruptcy for me.

— n (@nigelpm_uk) May 7, 2020

There are rumours that the Peru government will spread the payment due over 3 years and renegotiate the deal. Lots of oil in the ground…Just to level up with US trading we need a 35% rise #PTAL

— AimB (@bagger_aim) May 9, 2020

My thoughts

A lot of people don’t know the strategic importance of Bretana, and PTAL CEO’s connection with PeruPetro. Most of their “liabilities” are to owe to PeruPetro. With the CV19 pandemic, everyone is suffering, and I believe it is at Peru’s best interest to work together to resolve issues to avoid fire sales and mass panic. A lot of other producers are affected by PeruPetro’s Northern pipeline shutdown. The question I ask is, will PeruPetro repossess everything from everyone who doesn’t get oil revenue because of the impact? What would PeruPetro do so that they can minimize impact to themselves?

1. assume producers will never get cashflow again, and repossess assets from companies that can’t pay,
2. get a minority ownership in worthwhile producers
3. negotiate a debt restructuring plan and payment plan
4. help out their friends by doing #2 and/or #3.
5. Get government help and #4

It’s hard to say, but it’s not going to #1.

I’m just looking to a non-dilutive solution for PTAL. PTAL isn’t going away, I’m more worried about losing upside

Pipeline in Peru needs to close due to CV 19 and Bretana have to shut in — not cool

I bought more, looking forward to management being to sort out this tough situation with PetroPeru and Contractors. If they can bring production from 1K to 10K bopd in a year, then they should definitely be capable of negotiating payments and liabilities.